木棉花的春天

连续四季不涨反跌！英伟达今夜放榜该如何克服财报魔咒_我的网站

世界第一等

A | 英伟达在过去一年中极其亮眼的盈利表现，不仅无形中抬高了华尔街对它的期望，也拉高了所谓“业绩超预期”的门槛，这使得该股陷入了一个令许多投资者感到困扰的“魔咒”：每逢英伟达公布季报后，越来越难有正面的股价回应…… 这家总部位于加州圣克拉拉的芯片巨头，将于周三美股收盘后公布2027财年第二季业绩。 The president of a Detroit synagogue was found stabbed to death outside her home Saturday morning, police and the synagogue said.The Isaac Agree Downtown Synagogue put out a statement later in the afternoon identifying the victim as board president Samantha Woll.Detroit police responded to a 911 call of an unresponsive person around 6:30 a.m. and found a body outside a home on Joliet Place. The woman, who was not immediately identified by investigators had suffered multiple stab wounds, police said."At this point, we do not have more information, but will share more when it becomes available. May her memory be a blessing," the synagogue said in a Facebook post.In an update shared on Sunday, the Detroit Police chief said in a brief statement that there is no evidence to point to the crime being motivated by antisemitism."The investigation into the death of Ms. Woll remains ongoing. At this time, however, no evidence has surfaced suggesting that this crime was motivated by antisemitism," Chief James White’s statement read.“DPD investigators are working with the FBI to forensically analyze all of the information obtained up to this point in an effort to ascertain the timeline that ultimately led to Ms. Woll's death. Individuals with information that may further this investigation are being interviewed,” his statement continued.Authorities are investigating Woll's death as a homicide, police said on Saturday."Police officers observed a trail of blood leading officers to the victim’s residence, which is where the crime is believed to have occurred," the police said in a statement.The investigation remains ongoing.A law enforcement official briefed on the probe told ABC News that the preliminary investigation has revealed there was likely no forced entry to Woll’s home.Woll's death comes as law enforcement agencies across the country are warning of increased anti-Semitic threats in light of the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.Woll had a long career in local politics and worked with several elected officials over the years, according to her LinkedIn page.She recently served as the political director for Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel's re-election campaign.Nessel released a statement on X, formerly known as Twitter, expressing shock at Woll's murder."Sam was as kind a person as I’ve ever known. She was driven by her sincere love of her community, state and country. Sam truly used her faith and activism to create a better place for everyone," Nessel said in her post which included a photo of Woll.Woll also worked as a deputy district director for U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., who also released a statement on X following her death."She did for our team as Deputy District Director what came so naturally to her: helping others & serving constituents. Separately, in politics & in the Jewish community, she dedicated her short life to building understanding across faiths, bringing light in the face of darkness," Slotkin said.Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said the state police will be assisting the Detroit Police department in the investigation."My heart breaks for her family, her friends, her synagogue, and all those who were lucky enough to know her. She was a source of light, a beacon in her community who worked hard to make Michigan a better place," she said in a statement.Other Michigan elected officials also expressed their condolences."Decades ago, I shared a day of joy with Sam at the dedication of the newly renovated Downtown Synagogue. It was a project she successfully led with great pride and enthusiasm. Sam’s loss has left a huge hole in the Detroit community," Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan said in a statement to ABC affiliate WXYZ. Woll's funeral was planned for Sunday afternoon, according to WXYZ.Anyone with information is urged to call the Detroit Police's Homicide section at 313-596-2260.ABC News' Ben Siegel and Josh Maroglin contributed to this report. 。如下图所示，在过去四个季度中，尽管其每股收益、营收以及未来业绩指引均达到或超越了市场预期，但其股价在财报发布次日，却无一例外地出现了下跌。 甚至在英伟达财报发布三周之后，其股价往往都无法走出泥潭。据Bespoke Data数据显示，过去一年间，除了去年第二季度仅达到指引预期外，英伟达的所有主要业绩指标其实均超出了市场预期。然而，其股价在财报发布翌日却仍遭到投资者抛售。 “当我考虑英伟达的业绩指引时，我也会考虑到这样一个事实：过去大约三年里，他们一直都在超预期……因此，无论他们给出怎样的指引，市场在心理上都已经默认其最终表现会比指引更进一步，”韦德布什证券分析师Matthew Bryson周一表示。而眼下尤为关键的是，整场人工智能基础设施建设的沉重押注，如今几乎全系于英伟达一身——该公司不仅被视作无可替代的主导性硬件供应商，甚至还扮演着行业“出资人”的角色。

B | 问题在于，英伟达在财报日究竟能做些什么来真正打动投资者？ 独挑大梁 据FactSet数据显示，华尔街目前预计英伟达第二财季每股收益为2.09美元，第二财季营收为922亿美元。Cantor Fitzgerald在周六的一份报告中则强调，市场对英伟达第三财季营收的共识预期已达1037亿美元。分析人士表示，在市场预期早已高度透支的情况下，英伟达或许只有再次交出超越极限的答卷，才能赢得资本市场的掌声。 Rosenblatt Securities分析师Kevin Cassidy周一表示：“如果第三财季的营收指引能够突破1050亿美元，对市场而言将是个极大的惊喜；而一旦达到1100亿美元，那就是绝对爆炸性的表现了。” 此外，相比于将利润持续砸回AI建设的无限投入中，如果公司能释放出将更多盈利回馈给股东的信号，或许能从华尔街那里赢得更多的赞美。

C | Cassidy补充道：“如果财报数据未能惊艳全场，我们密切关注的另一个催化剂，将是他们是否会兑现承诺——将50%的自由现金流用于股票回购和提高分红。” 英伟达在6月举行年度股东大会时，公司创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋曾表示，基于对可持续市场增长和自由现金流生成能力的信心，我们计划在今年、明年以及更长期内，向股东返还50%或更多自由现金流，并随着时间推移继续提高股票回购和股息。 Cassidy将英伟达资本结构的潜在变化，比作苹果公司在其标志性产品iPhone增长开始放缓后所做的选择。他指出，“当大家对iPhone的增长数据逐渐脱敏后，苹果曾开启过大举回购，我认为英伟达接下来很可能会重演这一幕。” 此外，关于英伟达最新AI芯片平台Vera Rubin的消息也可能影响股价，尽管行业专家对其短期内的实际应用场景存有疑问，因为该平台的技术能力似乎远超当前可实现的商业需求。 “它的存在很酷，我也喜欢阅读这类新闻。但至于谁会使用它、用户是否愿意付费、以及愿意支付多少——所有这些问题目前都悬而未决，”德勤前首席云战略官David Linthicum表示。最后，无论英伟达股价在本次财报发布后如何演绎，这组最新业绩数据都将成为全场焦点，并实时折射出由AI浪潮所推动的全球股市的健康状况。正如Benchmark StoneX软件行业分析师Yi Fu Lee所言：“英伟达毫无疑问是整个AI行业的风向标。它也是我观察所有SaaS概念股的晴雨表，因为它的表现直接反映了半导体领域对GPU的真实需求是否依然强劲。”

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